Predicted PIT 56-60% · final PHI 11 PIT 9. Pirates offense clicked (9 runs) but pitching collapsed. Top Pick LOSS. Over 8.5 cleared easily at 20 total runs. Lesson: in high-scoring MLB matchups, Over is more reliable than ML — applied to Sat G2's Top Pick.
⏰ Bet cutoff: first pitch 6:40 PM EDT. Recommend bet-by 6:10 PM.
Result: Pirates lost despite scoring 9 runs. Phillies bats clicked + Pirates pitching gave up 11 — directional lean was wrong.
Tier B PIT ML: ✗ LOSS
Tier C PIT ML + Over 8.5: ✗ LOSS (Over hit easy at 20 runs · ML lost)
Zesty SameSHOT ($10): ✗ LOSS (Over leg ✓ · all ML/winner legs ✗)
Full Send SameSHOT ($10): ✗ LOSS (no PIT win, no win-by-3+)
Lesson: In high-scoring MLB games where both offenses click, Totals (OVER) more reliable than picking the winner. Saturday G2 lean revised down to coin-flip — bet totals over ML.