๐Ÿ“Š Lesson 1: Expected Value

The single most important concept in betting

Expected Value (EV) tells you the AVERAGE profit/loss if you placed the same bet many times. It's the difference between betting smart and betting on feelings.

EV = (Win Prob ร— Profit) โˆ’ (Loss Prob ร— Stake)

Only bet when EV > 0. Even high-confidence bets can have NEGATIVE EV if the odds aren't generous enough.

๐ŸŽฎ Try It Yourself

Move the sliders. Watch how a "high confidence" pick can still be a bad bet if the odds don't compensate.

Expected Value per bet
+$0.00
Break-even prob: 52.4% ยท Your edge: +2.6%
Outcome if you placed this bet 100 times
โ–  Wins   โ–  Losses

๐Ÿ“– Key Insights

Insight 1: Confidence isn't enough

A 70% confidence pick at -300 odds is a TERRIBLE bet. You need 75% to break even at -300.

Insight 2: Underdogs can be great bets

A 40% confidence pick at +200 odds is a GREAT bet. You only need 33.3% to break even at +200.

Insight 3: EV is long-run

+EV bets still lose 40-50% individually. The math wins over hundreds of bets, not one.