🔍 Lesson 4: Vig & Fair Odds

How sportsbooks actually make money

Sportsbooks bake in a margin called the vig (vigorish), also called the "juice" or "overround." On a 50/50 game, both sides are typically offered at -110 instead of +100. That extra ~5% is the book's profit.

Vig % = Total Implied Probability − 100%

Standard 50/50 line: Pistons -110 / Cavs -110 → both 52.4% implied → total 104.8% → vig = 4.8%

🎮 Vig Calculator

Enter both sides of a line. See the book's margin and the fair odds.

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Total vig (sportsbook margin)
SideYour oddsImplied %Fair odds (no vig)True %

📊 Vig Comparison Across Sportsbooks

Not all books charge the same vig. Pinnacle is the sharpest (lowest margin); recreational books charge more.

SportsbookTypical vig on -110/-110 lineNotes
Pinnacle~2.5%Sharpest, no US license, professionals' choice
BetOnline / Bookmaker~3-3.5%Reduced juice ("-105/-105")
DraftKings~4.5%US mass-market
FanDuel~4.5-5%US mass-market, similar to DK
BetMGM~4.5-5%Wider on player props
Caesars~4.5-5%Similar to others
Line shopping matters: If you bet $10 on every game across a season (~200 bets), the difference between DK at 4.5% vig and a reduced-juice book at 3% vig adds up to ~$30 saved in margin. That's free money for the same bets.

📖 Key Insights

−110 isn't "fair"

It implies 52.4% probability. The fair line at 50/50 is +100 (or "even money"). The 2.4% gap is your cost to play.

To find true probability, remove vig

Divide each side's implied probability by the total. If line is -110/-110 (52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8% total), true probabilities are both 52.4%/1.048 = 50%.

Heavy favorites have hidden vig

A -300 favorite implies 75%. If the opposite side is +250 (28.6%), total is 103.6% (3.6% vig). Always compare both sides to detect hidden margin.