# Pistons Game 4 — 2026-05-11 8:00 PM

## Series context

- Eastern Conference Semifinals
- Pistons (1 seed) vs Cleveland Cavaliers (4 seed)
- DET leads series 2-1
- Game 3 (Sat 5/9): CLE 116 - DET 109 (CLE won at home)
- Tonight at Cleveland — CLE trying to even series 2-2

## Sportsbook implied probability

- CLE 59.3%
- DET 40.7%

## Planning chat pre-game analysis

### Key data from Game 3

- Cunningham: 27 pts, 10 reb, 10 ast triple-double — but 37% FG (10/27)
- Mitchell: 35 pts, 10 reb (CLE star game)
- DET 17 offensive rebounds (CLE 5) — DET strength
- CLE 84% at the rim vs DET 67.6%
- DET 16 turnovers → CLE 19 points off TOs

### Rankings (pre-odds)

1. DET +4.5 spread — best value, Cunningham regression coming
2. UNDER 218.5-219.5 total — Game 4 tightening pattern
3. Cunningham OVER 24.5 points prop — bounce back
4. Mitchell UNDER points prop — regression from 35

### Avoid

- DET moneyline straight up
- Parlays
- Live betting

## Sam's bet

- Bet type: TBD (decide after seeing odds at ~7:45 PM)
- Bet size: $10-25 (small)
- Odds: TBD
- Sportsbook used: TBD

## Result (post-game)

- Final score: TBD
- Bet outcome: TBD
- Notes: TBD

## Lessons / refinements

- TBD post-game

## Status

- 2026-05-11 6:54 PM: Pre-game analysis complete, awaiting Sam's bet placement at 7:45 PM