{
  "_doc": "Prediction manifest. Static seed of predictions Sam + planning chat have committed to. Outcomes + scoring live in KV (prediction-outcome-{game_id}) so they can be updated without a git push. Factor accuracy stats live in KV (factor-track-{slug}). Append new entries here when committing a new prediction. Per-entry fields: 'tier' is one of the 4-tier SameSHOT framework \u2014 'B' (safer bet $5), 'C' (correlated 2-leg parlay $5), 'A-mild' (Zesty SameSHOT $10 \u00b7 ~10x \u00b7 3-leg ~25-40% hit rate), 'A-full' (Full Send SameSHOT $10 \u00b7 ~100x \u00b7 BCE-triggered 4-5 leg ~10-15% hit rate). 'methodology' = tag like 'talent_gap', 'situational', 'blowout_correlation_edge', 'v2_selectivity', 'correlated_2leg', 'mild_sameshot', 'full_sameshot', 'BCE_full_trigger'. See /bets/methodology.html and /bets/edges/blowout-correlation/ for the frameworks. (Legacy: earlier _doc referenced tier_1/tier_2 from the dual-tier-strategy phase \u2014 superseded by the 4-tier SameSHOT framework May 2026.)",
  "version": 1,
  "predictions": [
    {
      "game_id": "2026-05-15-cle-det-g6",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "game_name": "Cavaliers vs Pistons \u2014 Game 6 (elimination)",
      "date": "2026-05-15",
      "time": "19:00",
      "venue": "Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland",
      "analysis_url": "/bets/games/2026-05-15-cle-det-g6/",
      "predicted_at": "2026-05-15T12:00:00-04:00",
      "predicted_probability": {
        "DET": 0.45,
        "CLE": 0.55
      },
      "official_probability": {
        "DET": 0.401,
        "CLE": 0.599
      },
      "pick": "DET ML if +130 or better",
      "sameshot_pick": "DET wins by 5+ (+350) + Cunningham 35+ pts (+450) + Over 222 (+110) + Cade 8+ ast (+200) \u2014 combined ~100-150x payout \u00b7 $10 \u2192 $1,000-1,500 (Sam's Option B, finalized 2026-05-15)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "factors_cited": [
        "CLE 3PT regression (Strus 6/8 unsustainable)",
        "DET elimination experience (came back from 2-3 vs ORL)",
        "Pistons FT rate advantage",
        "Cunningham scoring baseline (~25-30)",
        "CLE home court closeout (against)",
        "Series momentum 3 straight CLE (against)"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "nba",
        "playoffs",
        "elimination",
        "underdog-lean"
      ]
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026-05-16-pit-phi",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game_name": "Pirates vs Phillies \u2014 Game 2 of 3",
      "date": "2026-05-16",
      "time": "16:05",
      "venue": "PNC Park, Pittsburgh",
      "analysis_url": "/bets/games/2026-05-16-pit-phi/",
      "predicted_at": "2026-05-15T12:00:00-04:00",
      "predicted_probability": {
        "PIT": 0.6,
        "PHI": 0.4
      },
      "pick": "Pirates ML at -140 or better",
      "sameshot_pick": "PIT wins by 4+ (+250) + Over 9.5 (-110) + Reynolds HR (+450) + Cruz HR/2+ hits (+200) + 1st-inn PIT score (+150) \u2014 combined ~100-150x payout \u00b7 $10 \u2192 $1,000-1,500. NOTE: PHI Sanchez 2.11 ERA vs PIT Chandler 4.62 ERA pitching mismatch \u2014 high-variance bet.",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "factors_cited": [
        "Home field at PNC",
        "Pirates recent form (7-2 win May 14)",
        "Phillies travel fatigue (Fri night + Sat day)",
        "Day-game-after-night-game disadvantage for visitors",
        "Record edge (above vs below .500)",
        "Pirates pitching depth"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "mlb",
        "regular-season",
        "home-favorite",
        "sam-attending"
      ]
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026-05-15-pga-championship",
      "sport": "Golf",
      "game_name": "PGA Championship \u2014 Aronimink GC",
      "date": "2026-05-15",
      "time": "06:45",
      "venue": "Aronimink GC, Newtown Square PA",
      "analysis_url": "/bets/games/2026-05-15-pga-championship/",
      "predicted_at": "2026-05-15T08:00:00-04:00",
      "predicted_probability": null,
      "pick": "$25 portfolio (5 tickets) \u2014 see analysis page",
      "sameshot_pick": "Aldrich Potgieter outright (4/7 factor stack)",
      "confidence": "MIXED",
      "factors_cited": [
        "Course narrow fairways favor accuracy over distance",
        "First Aronimink major since 1962 (no course memory)",
        "Scheffler never won major leading R1",
        "Course-fit underdog (Potgieter firm-fast game)",
        "Rory R1 +4 (cut-line risk for parlay)",
        "Pressure asymmetry (favorites carry weight)"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "golf",
        "major",
        "tournament",
        "SameSHOT-stack"
      ]
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026-05-15-sas-min-g6",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "game_name": "Spurs @ Timberwolves \u2014 Game 6 (closeout)",
      "date": "2026-05-15",
      "time": "21:30",
      "venue": "Target Center, Minneapolis",
      "analysis_url": "/bets/games/2026-05-15-sas-min-g6/",
      "predicted_at": "2026-05-15T18:00:00-04:00",
      "predicted_probability": {
        "SAS": 0.62,
        "MIN": 0.38
      },
      "pick": "SAS ML at -150 or better",
      "sameshot_pick": "Full Send \u2014 SAS -4 spread + Over 220 + Wemby 30+ pts + Wemby 12+ rebs (~ +11000) \u00b7 $10 \u2192 $1,100 \u00b7 BCE FULL TRIGGER (4/4)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM-HIGH",
      "factors_cited": [
        "Talent gap (SAS now top-tier)",
        "Closeout situation (SAS up 3-2)",
        "Wemby double-double anchor",
        "MIN home crowd vs frustrated team",
        "BCE 4/4 trigger conditions met",
        "First validation Phase 1 bet"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "nba",
        "playoffs",
        "closeout",
        "BCE-full-trigger",
        "phase-1-bet-1"
      ]
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026-05-17-cle-det-g7",
      "sport": "NBA",
      "game_name": "Cavaliers @ Pistons \u2014 GAME 7 (winner advances to ECF)",
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "time": "TBD",
      "venue": "Little Caesars Arena, Detroit",
      "analysis_url": "/bets/games/2026-05-17-cle-det-g7/",
      "predicted_at": "2026-05-16T20:00:00-04:00",
      "predicted_probability": {
        "DET": 0.6,
        "CLE": 0.4
      },
      "pick": "DET ML at -130 or better",
      "sameshot_pick": "Full Send \u2014 DET wins by 5+ + Cunningham 30+ + Duren double-double + Over 215 (~ +10000-12000) \u00b7 $10 \u2192 $1,000-1,200 \u00b7 BCE FULL TRIGGER (4/4) \u00b7 Phase 1 Bet #2",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM-HIGH",
      "factors_cited": [
        "Home court Game 7 (~63-65% historical home G7 win rate)",
        "G6 momentum (DET won by 21, 52% FG / 44% 3P)",
        "Bench gap (DET 48 vs CLE 19 in G6)",
        "Cunningham + Duren both clicking",
        "CLE 1-seed pressure / nerves",
        "BCE 4/4 trigger \u2014 first Phase 1 Bet #2"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "nba",
        "playoffs",
        "game-7",
        "elimination",
        "BCE-full-trigger",
        "phase-1-bet-2"
      ]
    },
    {
      "game_id": "2026-05-17-pit-phi",
      "sport": "MLB",
      "game_name": "Phillies @ Pirates \u2014 Game 3 of 3 (series finale)",
      "date": "2026-05-17",
      "time": "13:35",
      "venue": "PNC Park, Pittsburgh",
      "analysis_url": "/bets/games/2026-05-17-pit-phi/",
      "predicted_at": "2026-05-16T22:00:00-04:00",
      "predicted_probability": {
        "PIT": 0.57,
        "PHI": 0.43
      },
      "pick": "Pirates ML at -130 or better \u00b7 skip if line drifts past -150",
      "sameshot_pick": "Full Send \u2014 PIT wins by 3+ + Over 9.5 + Reynolds 2+ hits + any Pirate HR + 1st-inning PIT score (~ +9500-13000) \u00b7 $10 \u2192 $950-1,300",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM",
      "factors_cited": [
        "Home field at PNC",
        "Day game \u00b7 series finale",
        "Series advantage (G2 outcome dependent)",
        "Day-game lineup variance \u00b7 skip-watch"
      ],
      "tags": [
        "mlb",
        "regular-season",
        "series-finale",
        "home-favorite",
        "skip-watch"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "updated": "2026-05-17"
}