Second major of 2026
PGA Championship at Aronimink
First time the PGA Championship is at Aronimink — a Donald Ross design getting its first major. Par 70, 7,394 yards. Bentgrass greens.
🏌️ Course Notes — Aronimink
Architect1928 Donald Ross design
SetupPar 70 · 7,394 yards
GreensBentgrass — fast, undulating
Last major hosted2018 KPMG Women's PGA Championship
What matters for betting:
- Tree-lined corridors → tee-shot accuracy matters more than raw length.
- Par 70 with only two par 5s → fewer scoring chances, approach play is the differentiator.
- Bentgrass greens → strokes-gained putting on similar surfaces is a stronger signal than overall putting rank.
- Cool May weather possible → if conditions stay soft, scoring will be lower than a typical major.
- First major at this venue → no recent course history to lean on. Models will be noisier than at Augusta / Pebble.
📊 Field & Markets
Full field of ~156. World #1 Scottie Scheffler enters as the heavy chalk. Course-fit candidates (accuracy + approach + bentgrass putting) get a structural boost over pure power players.
Where the betting markets are
Outright winner
~1–10% per player · 5/1 to 200/1+
Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 20
10–30% hit · +200 to +600
First-round leader
~0.6% per entry · 60/1–150/1
Head-to-head (Thu / Fri)
~50% nominally · matched pairs often mispriced
Where we'll look for edge: Top 10 / Top 20 on elite players (highest base rate among +EV-able markets), and head-to-head matchups in rounds 1–2 where books often anchor on world ranking instead of course fit.
🎯 Picks — verify lines at game time
Confidence tiers, not certainty. Bets are illustrative — Sam confirms numbers at sportsbook before placing.
Scheffler — Top 5TOP 5
Best player in the world; high floor at majors. The outright (~5–7/1) bakes in too much variance for a 156-player field. Top 5 captures the floor without paying chalk-tax.
Target line: +130 or better
Xander Schauffele — Top 10TOP 10
Major specialist with consistent finishes; approach/SG-around-green profile fits par-70 Aronimink. Defending PGA champion narrative is bonus.
Target line: +175 or better
Jordan Spieth — Top 20TOP 20
Career grand-slam chase narrative; iron play has trended back. Par 70 with accuracy premium is closer to his strengths than the bomb-and-gouge venues that hurt him.
Target line: +180 or better
Sam Burns — Top 30TOP 30 / MISC
Quiet bentgrass-putting specialist; often underpriced at majors because of mid-tier name recognition. Value play if Top-30 line is +220 or better.
Target line: +220 or better
Tom Kim — OutrightLOTTO
High-variance lottery ticket only. Iron play is elite, age curve favorable, course doesn't punish his lack of bomber length. Skip if odds are shorter than +5000.
Target line: +5000 or longer · stake ≤0.25% of bankroll
Common trap to avoid: first-round leader bets. ~0.6% base rate sounds beatable at 75/1, but the vig + the difficulty of forecasting 18 holes of golf out of 72 makes this a sucker's market most weeks. Skip unless you have a specific weather-window edge.