Pirates had 13-3 explosion vs SF Saturday — bats lit up. Lost 7-6 Sunday in a close one. Rockies arriving cold after weekend humiliation by Phillies (lost 9-3 and 6-0). Pirates clear edge: hot home team vs traveling cold visitor.
| Rank-1 bet: | Pirates Moneyline |
| Odds: | -160 (decimal 1.625) |
| Implied probability (vig included): | 61.5% |
| True implied (vig removed, ~4%): | 60.3% |
| My estimated win probability: | 61.5% (mid of 60-63%) |
| Edge over market: | +1.2% |
| EV per $10 stake: | ≈$0.00 (break-even) |
| Kelly fraction (full): | ~0% — pass |
| Quarter Kelly on $1000 bankroll: | $0 (skip or wait) |
Verdict: Tier 2-3 boundary, essentially break-even at -160. Pass — wait for -150 or better. Methodology →