Tigers won series finale at KC 6-3 Sunday — bats showing life on the road. Mets dropped recent games (lost 5-1 to Arizona Sunday). Both teams looking for momentum heading into series opener at Citi Field.
Tigers slight road dog likely. Home Mets favored but neither team is firing.
| Rank-1 bet: | Mets ML at home |
| Odds: | -140 (decimal 1.714) |
| Implied probability (vig included): | 58.3% |
| True implied (vig removed, ~4%): | 57.2% |
| My estimated win probability: | 56.5% (mid of 55-58%) |
| Edge over market: | −0.7% |
| EV per $10 stake: | −$0.32 |
| Kelly fraction (full): | negative — don't bet |
| Quarter Kelly on $1000 bankroll: | $0 (skip) |
Verdict: NEGATIVE EV — skip per methodology. The -140 odds already price in ~57% true prob; our 56.5% est is below. The "confidence" doesn't beat the market here. Methodology →