๐Ÿš๏ธ Dad's PA Garage โ€” Decision Analysis

Priority 2 ยท ~$115K ยท 14 spots heated

๐ŸŸ  ESTIMATES โ€” populated with industry data

PA storage market data drives the ranges. Real deal terms from dad will replace estimates.

โœ… Known facts

๐Ÿ“Š Market Estimates (real industry data)

VariableEstimated rangeConfidenceNotes
Heated storage rental, rural-suburban PA$80โ€“$250 / mo per spot๐ŸŸข HIGH 85%Industry data (Sparefoot etc.) โ€” heated commands premium
14 spots ร— ~$150 avg ร— 80% occupancy~$1,680 / mo gross๐ŸŸก MED 65%Sensitivity heavy
Annual gross~$20,160๐ŸŸก MED 65%Depends on actual local rates + occupancy
Operating costs (utilities + insurance + taxes + maintenance)$4Kโ€“$8K / yr๐ŸŸก MED 65%Heated = higher utility, varies w/ PA region
Net annual$12Kโ€“$16K๐ŸŸก MED 60%Gross minus opex
Gross yield on $115K purchase10โ€“15%๐ŸŸก MEDStrong for storage real estate
Net yield on $115K7โ€“12%๐ŸŸก MEDAfter opex
Payback period (full cash)~8โ€“10 years๐ŸŸก MEDDepending on actual revenue
If financed at 7% (~$770/mo P&I on $115K)Net cash flow $300โ€“$700 / mo๐ŸŸก MEDP&I assumed 15-yr commercial

โŒ What we still need

๐ŸŽฌ Scenarios to Model (Monte Carlo)

1. Cash purchase + passive rental. $115K cash, hands-off mgmt or hire local.
2. Partnership with friends (June 4 meeting). Split costs, revenue, work across Chris/Tony/Luke.
3. Active operation by Sam. Requires PA presence or remote mgmt. High effort, more upside.
4. Hybrid use. Same Solutions tool storage + workspace; secondary rental defrays costs.
5. Pass. Dad pursues alone; Sam stays out.

๐ŸŽฒ Run the Monte Carlo

Pre-populated preset on the engine page. Plug in updated ranges once dad provides real deal terms.

โ†’ Open Monte Carlo Engine (Dad's Garage preset)

Expected output structure: 5-yr NPV at 8% discount rate, P(positive ROI) by year 5, P5/P50/P95 outcome bands. Engine ready โ€” needs real numbers to be meaningful.

๐Ÿงญ Decision Factors Beyond Money