Estimation Methodology

🎯 The Rule

Every number on every FP page has a confidence gauge. If you see a dollar amount without a gauge, that's a bug — tell CC.

When real data arrives, we replace the estimate AND upgrade the gauge to HIGH.

🚦 Confidence Levels

Level	Range	What it means
🟢 HIGH	85%+	Public data, well-established baseline, OR Sam-confirmed
🟡 MED	60–84%	Reasonable estimate from comparable data, needs verification
🔴 LOW	<60%	Educated guess based on limited inputs
⚪ PLACEHOLDER	0%	No estimate possible; Sam must populate

⚠️ CORRECTED 2026-05-13: Sam is self-employed (left GM 2022, Hyundai Oct 2024). GM-salary estimates are no longer income-relevant — kept only as historical context for the original 18% snapshot. Self-employment income lives in revenue tracker (manual monthly).

🟢 What I CAN estimate with high confidence

~~GM EV engineer salary range — Glassdoor + Levels.fyi public comp data~~ (deprecated — Sam not W-2 since Oct 2024)
Typical mortgage structure for Commerce Twp 2020–2024 home purchase
Family-of-3 expense baselines in Oakland County MI
Healthcare cost ranges (full ACA — Sam self-pays since Oct 2024)
Same Solutions current revenue based on quotes in manage app + outstanding receivables
Standard 401k contribution rates, employer match conventions (legacy context only)
PA storage rental rates (rural-to-suburban heated garage)
USDA food cost plans by family size
Average vehicle insurance MI rates

🔴 What I CANNOT estimate

Sam's specific 401k allocation history — date he switched from target-date to growth pool, contribution amounts
Actual mortgage rate — could be 3% (2021 lock) or 7% (2023 purchase). Range too wide to estimate.
Credit card balances and APRs
Specific tax situation (last year's return, current LLC structure choices)
Exact monthly variable spending (groceries vs dining vs Win activities mix)
CeCe's specific income (only industry estimate available)
Sam's emergency fund / cash reserves

📊 Visual Pattern

Every estimated value is paired with its gauge inline:

Same Solutions YTD: TBD ⚪ PLACEHOLDER · derivable from manage app quote/invoice data

Property tax (Commerce Twp 1.7%): ~$565/mo on $400K assessment 🟡 MED — confirm assessment

ACA family premium baseline: ~$1.2K–$2K/mo 🟡 MED 65% · healthcare.gov silver-plan benchmark

Current 401k balance: ~$350K 🟢 HIGH (Sam-stated) · withdrawal history in 401k tracker

🧮 Computing the 18% "Overall Completeness"

The personal hub's FP tile shows "18% complete." That's:

completeness % = (# HIGH-confidence values) / (total values needed for full FP picture)

Right now: ~9 HIGH values out of ~50 needed = ~18%. As Sam fills in real numbers via the confirmation queue, this rises.

📚 Sources used for estimates

~~Glassdoor — GM engineering salary bands~~ (no longer used — Sam self-employed)
~~Levels.fyi — verified comp data for similar roles~~ (no longer used — kept for Path E consulting day-rate reference only)
USDA Food Plans (moderate-cost, family of 3)
Oakland County MI millage rates (treasurer's office)
Insurify / The Zebra — MI vehicle insurance averages
Sparefoot / industry data — PA storage rental rates
Healthcare.gov silver-plan benchmark — ACA premium ranges
NerdWallet / Bankrate — mortgage rate environment by year