# Overnight Summary — 2026-05-12 AM

Sam went to sleep at 1:35 AM. CC ran through 10 tasks while you slept. Here's what shipped.

## ✅ Commits made (this session)

| Hash | Subject |
|---|---|
| `f4cc2c6` | Peter Scott visit page + Aceves Tuesday checklist + inbox system + calendar Tuesday cleanup |
| (next) | Print dashboard, cost tracker, app session doc, hub Tuesday refresh, recalibration prep, strategy framework, this summary |

## 🎯 Top items for your morning

### 1. Peter Scott shed visit (4:30 PM today)

**Mobile-ready page**: https://samesolutions-equipment-service.pages.dev/customer-jobs/peter-scott-shed-2026-05/2026-05-12-visit.html

Has tiered approach (T1 shimming, T2 concrete blocks, T3 refer), assessment checklist with tappable checkboxes, tool list to load before driving, quote landing zones ($80–$250), and an INBOX section for field notes.

**Address reminder**: 3232 Green Oak Drive, Commerce Twp MI 48390.

### 2. Aceves paint Tuesday plan (9:00–12:00)

Updated doc at `/handoff-blocks/aceves-paint-2026-05-11.md` now includes:
- EOD Monday status (ceiling ~7/8 done, 8 hrs banked at $560)
- Remaining checklist: ceiling 10%, 3 door faces, trim, 4 baseboard heater covers, touch-ups, spatter cleanup, radiator vacuum + paint
- Tuesday est: 2–4 hrs more = $140–280 to bank
- **Revised SS-Q010 total: $700–840** (10–12 hours total)
- Feedback survey planned before invoicing

### 3. Hub refreshed for Tuesday

**Coming Up strip** now reads:
🎨 Today AM Aceves paint 9–12 · 🏚️ Today 4:30 PM Peter Scott shed · 🐾 Wed 3:00 PM Vet · ✈️ Fri Pittsburgh

**Quick-access buttons**: Status · Aceves Paint · 🏚️ Peter Scott · 🖨️ Prints · 🔧 Tools (removed stale "Full Briefing" link from yesterday)

**Now/Next panel schedule** updated to Tuesday: bus stop 8:20 with Jon, paint 9–12, drive to Peter Scott 4:00, appointment 4:30–5:30, dinner 6 PM, manage-app session 7–8 PM.

### 4. Calendar Tuesday cleaned up

Removed stale "Peter Scott TBD" at noon, removed phantom 1pm "Jon paint" block. Now correctly shows:
- 8:20 bus stop with Jon (linked to /bets/)
- 9–12 paint cont (linked to Aceves doc)
- 4:30 PM Peter Scott shed (linked to visit page)

## 📥 Inbox system — bidirectional substrate

New procedure doc at `/handoff-blocks/inbox-processor.md` explains how it works.

**INBOX blocks added to 5 files**:
- `index.html` (substrate hub)
- `personal/calendar/current.html`
- `personal/status-tracker/current.html`
- `handoff-blocks/aceves-paint-2026-05-11.md`
- `customer-jobs/peter-scott-shed-2026-05/2026-05-12-visit.html`

**How to use**: Write notes in the INBOX section of any active doc (in the field, on your phone). Next CC session runs the inbox processor, processes items, marks `[DONE]` / `[NEEDS-INFO]` / `[BLOCKED]`, reports summary.

## 🖨️ Print dashboard

New page: `/personal/3d-printing/dashboard.html`

Visual recap of recent prints, filament inventory bars, Pittsburgh batch tracking (3 Pirates done / 8 target, 1* Phillies done / 8 target — pending overnight confirmation).

## 💰 Cost tracking + app session prep

- `/handoff-blocks/cost-tracker-2026-05-12.md` — this week revenue projection ($780–$1,510)
- `/handoff-blocks/app-next-session.md` — checklist for next manage-app session (Jonathon name correction, SS-Q010, Peter Scott customer record, etc.)

## 🎓 Strategy Framework (capstone Learn page)

New: `/bets/learn/strategy-framework.html`

This is the integration page Sam asked for — combines EV, Kelly, Gaussian, CLV into a 7-step decision process. Includes:
- Decision flowchart (Q1–Q4 gates)
- 90-day projected bankroll growth chart (synthetic, clearly labeled)
- Paper trading rules
- Backtest framework (with cost decision: defer until N≥30)
- Timeline of expected outcomes (Week 1 noise → Week 12 validated)

Linked from `/bets/learn/` as a gold-highlighted capstone card.

## 🗓️ Recalibration session prep

New: `/personal/status-tracker/recalibration-prep-2026-05-12.md`

Topics doc for your Tuesday recalibration discussion. 7 topics covered (Monday review, bets direction, June 4 friends meeting, Pittsburgh, career fork, app priorities, energy management). Has its own INBOX block for pre-session notes.

## ⚠️ Notes / partial completions

1. **Pirates overnight print** — I assumed success in the dashboard since Sam said "Assumption: Pirates dual-color print finishes cleanly overnight." Verify in person AM.

2. **Pistons G4 final score**: CLE 112 – DET 103 (Sam's DET +4.5 spread = LOSS, marked in bankroll tracker).

3. **Calendar week view** still has some legacy Monday content visible (print pauses) — those are historical Monday events. They render in the Monday column with checkmarks per the past-event styling. Not stale, just retained for the week view.

4. **Win pickup Tuesday at 4pm** removed from calendar week view since Peter Scott appointment 4:30 conflicts — if Win pickup is needed Tuesday, you'll need to arrange alt (CeCe? bus monitor?). Flag this when you wake.

## 🌐 Hub URL reminder

All canonical: https://samesolutions-equipment-service.pages.dev/

Hub at root. Bets section at `/bets/` (friend-shareable, no personal hub link). Personal hub has private substrate (status, calendar, customer jobs, handoffs).

## 💤 Sam slept ~5–6 hours (1:35 AM → 7-ish AM). Bus stop 8:20.

Have a good day. Make Jon's morning. Crush the paint. Quote Peter Scott well.

— CC, 2026-05-12 overnight

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## 🔬 ADDENDUM — Real Historical Backtest (Task 11)

Sam re-asked for this overnight. Built and shipped.

**Data acquired:** github.com/FinnedAI/sportsbookreview-scraper — pre-scraped NBA games 2011–2021. **13,903 games**, all with opening/closing spreads, totals, moneylines, per-quarter scores.

**Model:** Simplified (intentionally — couldn't replicate live form/injury inputs retrospectively):
- Opening spread → win prob via Gaussian (σ=11)
- + Record-based bias (cumulative season win pct, weight 0.10)
- 7-gate strategy: edge ≥ 2%, EV > 0, Quarter Kelly capped at 2%

**Bets simulated:** 4,615 (out of 13,903 games passed gates)

**Result — brutal but honest:**
- Win rate: **51.07%** (need 52.38% to break even at −110)
- Final bankroll: **$49.03** (started $1,000)
- **ROI: −95.1%**
- Max drawdown: 96.3%
- **Avg CLV: −4.68 spread points** (the smoking gun)

**Why this matters:** The CLV was negative within the first 500 bets — long before bankroll hit zero. That's the leading indicator the strategy was broken. Our live analyses include current-form/injury/matchup inputs that this backtest CAN'T model from historical data alone, but the backtest sets a clear floor:

> **If our live picks don't beat this simplified baseline, they're worthless.**
> **Track CLV on every live bet.** Negative CLV across 30+ bets = recalibrate.

**Files shipped:**
- `/bets/learn/backtest-script.js` — reproducible Node.js script (set NBA_DATA env var)
- `/bets/learn/backtest-results.html` — full results page with SVG bankroll chart, methodology, 5 lessons section, per-season breakdown
- Learn hub now has red-bordered capstone card for the backtest alongside the gold strategy-framework card

**Lessons section on the results page**:
1. Simple model is a money pit
2. 51% win rate is meaningfully losing (vs 52.4% break-even)
3. CLV is the leading indicator (would have shown failure within ~500 bets)
4. Quarter Kelly + 2% cap saved us from total ruin (ended at $49, not $0)
5. Live analyses include nuance backtest doesn't — but they MUST beat this floor

Honest framing throughout. Methodology page warnings now have real numbers behind them.

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**Total overnight work this session**: ~30 min on backtest after prior 50-min push. Sam can read this summary first thing.