📋 NBA Prop Analysis Framework

What pros actually look at — eight inputs + six edges
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Player props are now the largest retail bet category — and where books make the highest margins. Pros approach them very differently from spread/total bets. This page documents the eight inputs we evaluate for every prop, the six structural edges to target, and the discipline rules (higher edge threshold, smaller stakes) that make props sustainable instead of bankroll death.

The eight inputs we evaluate for every prop

1. Recent role (last 5–10 games)
Props are priced on recent — not season averages. Lineups, injuries, and coaching adjustments move a player's role in 5–10 game blocks.
Example: a player averaging 24 ppg for the season but 30+ in last three games is being scored on the 30 number, not the 24.
2. Minutes projection — the silent killer
Every prop is per-game. No minutes = no production. Pros build a minutes projection first, then per-minute production. Foul-trouble risk, blowout risk (garbage time), and injury status all bend minutes before any usage math matters.
Example: a star averaging 35 mpg who's been in foul trouble two of the last three games has a real downside on minutes that goes ignored if you only look at the season average.
3. Usage rate × pace
Usage is the % of team possessions the player ends (shot, turnover, FTs). Pace is possessions per 48. Multiply them together to get a player's raw "scoring opportunities per game."
Example: 32% usage × 100 pace ≈ 32 possession-uses; 28% × 95 pace ≈ 27. Different ceiling.
4. Position-specific opponent defense
Team defensive ratings hide matchup detail. "DET defense" varies dramatically by position — what matters for a guard prop is how DET defends guards specifically.
Example: a team that's 5th overall in DRtg but 25th vs starting PGs is a soft spot for a PG scoring prop.
5. Pace (team + opponent)
More possessions = more chances at every counting stat. Two slow teams (~95 pace) make every prop's over harder.
Example: DET ~98 + CLE ~99 = slow game. Lean unders on every prop unless there's a specific reason.
6. Home/road splits
Many players have large home-vs-road differentials (sleep, crowd, travel, free-throw rate). Books price the average; the split is where the edge hides.
Example: scorer averaging 28 home, 22 road. Game line is at the 25 average; the road line is mispriced over.
7. Series-specific adjustments
By Game 4–5 of a playoff series, defenses have specific matchups dialed. Players who lit up Game 1 are often suffocated by Game 5.
Example: a defensive ace gets reassigned to the lead scorer after a Game 1 explosion — scoring prop should adjust.
8. Injury cascade
If a teammate is out, usage redistributes. The biggest prop edges of the year are often on the player who absorbs the missing star's possessions.
Example: 6th man's points prop is set at his season avg of 11; the team's #2 option is out tonight and the 6th man is starting — book is slow to adjust on the small market.

Six structural edges pros target

1. Unders on stars
Public money is overwhelmingly on the over of stars. Books shade those lines slightly low — the under inherits the slightly worse number, which is exactly what we want.
Mitchell over 26.5 at -125 / under 26.5 at -105 = the under is the "house side" with the better break-even.
2. Alternate lines for better math
A lower threshold often has better EV than the standard line. Run the probability math on both — the answer isn't always the higher number.
"Over 2.5 threes at -130" might be 48% × 2.30 − 52% × 1.00 = +0.10 EV. "Over 1.5 threes at +100" might be 70% × 2.00 − 30% × 1.00 = +1.10 EV.
3. Combo props (PRA = Pts + Reb + Ast)
Three positively-correlated variables that books price worse than single stats. When a player plays a lot of minutes, all three go up together — that correlation is hard to model perfectly.
If the three separate-stat numbers add to 36.0 but the PRA line is 35.5, the over is +EV.
4. First-half / first-quarter props
Lower-liquidity markets get less sharp attention. Full-game lines are hammered all day; partial-game lines stay closer to opening.
Mitchell over 13.5 first-half points might be better priced than over 26.5 full game.
5. Defensive stat props (steals, blocks, assists)
Books model scoring better than non-scoring stats. Steals/blocks/AST lines are often a half-step behind the data.
Mobley over 1.5 blocks at +100 can be a better play than his points prop — if the matchup says rim attacks.
6. "No threes" or unders on shooters in bad matchups
3-point variance is huge — books have to price both ends. When defense matches up well (long-armed, high-IQ closeouts), the under is often mispriced.
A 38%-from-3 shooter against a team that contests at the highest rate in the league: under 1.5 makes is a defensible bet at +120.

Discipline rules for props

RuleValueWhy
Edge threshold≥ 4%Higher vig than game lines, smaller samples — need more margin
SizingHalf Quarter-KellyHigher variance, smaller stakes survive bad runs
Max props per game1–2 bestPicking 10 props is correlation-betting, not edge-finding
SGP / parlaysNeverVig magnification, negative-EV by construction
CLV trackingSeparate from game linesDifferent market dynamics — don't pollute either signal

Red flags — skip the prop

Linked from every NBA game page that has a prop section. Updated as we learn what actually correlates with prop outcomes in our own bet log.